According to federal, state, and tribal biologists, 2012 salmon numbers should be high. The estimate is based off of the 2011 jack numbers - how many salmon were counted heading west this last year. 168,000 salmon are estimated to be returning to Idaho this coming season, out of a total of 277,400 (4 year olds) swimming up the Columbia.
Estimates have been fairly reliable. 2011 saw more fish coming back than what was expected. So this is not an exact science. You can read more here.
Speaking of salmon estimates, this reminds me of a story that dated back to the 1960's. Wildlife officials saw that returning salmon numbers were way down. The IF&G prohibited salmon fishing that year, but Idaho residents would hear nothing of it. They said - damned if they're going to let the salmon go home, where Oregonians will harvest them anyway. They might as well harvest the fish before someone else does. Even in the face of the prohibition, Idahoans were setting up salmon fishing contests. IF&G beefed up sending more game wardens to the scenes, ready to make arrests. But folks did what they wanted anyway, certain that no reasonable judge would find them guilty of anything.
